AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="062b85a3.jpg"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#EEEEEE" FACE="Arial" ><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></FONT><B>    </B><B> |     </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>home</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS"><B>NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS"><B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES"><B>FIVE THEMES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH"><B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO"><B>A SIMILAR SCENARIO</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION"><B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B></A><B>   |   </B><B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY"><B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES"><B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES"><B>REFERENCES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE"><B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey"><B>Florida Futures Survey</B></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=250 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="063fab83.jpg"> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="07176730.gif" border=0 width="118" height="115" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES">NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS">NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS">PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES">FIVE THEMES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH">ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</A></div> <div> <A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO">A SIMILAR SCENARIO</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION">CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</A></div> <div> <B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B></div> <div> <A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY">BETTING ON CONTINUITY</A></div> <div> <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES">REFERENCES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE">POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey">Florida Futures Survey</A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 width="100%" BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000" background="06107073.jpg"> <div> <B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B></div> <bR> <div> There are, however, counter trends and opposing forces that could curtail the inflow of retirees to Florida and erode their wealth. This cautionary view was expressed by <I>Florida Trend</I> magazine about a decade before Colburn and deHaven-Smith published their book.</div> <bR> <div> “Already, retiree migration is slowing, and nowhere is it carved in stone that baby boomers will follow their parents and seek Florida's retirement communities. … Florida should continue to attract its share of seniors …  [but] … retiring boomers will not be as affluent as their predecessors [because of] white-collar layoffs, huge college bills, wage stagnation and budgetary pressures on Social Security.”  </div> <div> (Hagy, 1993) </div> <bR> <div> Boomers' parents were able to afford a Florida retirement because of generous pensions and health insurance, and Social Security payments that covered a significant portion of their living expenses. The subsequent erosion of this financial underpinning will fundamentally alter the economics of aging in America. (Wise, 2005)</div> <bR> <div> The end of guaranteed pensions and health insurance is an historic shift of risk from employers to employees that leaves many boomers hopelessly ill prepared for retirement. (Hacker, 2006) Florida is not likely to escape the consequences.  </div> <bR> <div> Crisis looms because boomers have not saved enough during their working years to compensate for the loss of retirement benefits. (Fernandez and Brandon, 2006) Nor will inheritances fill the gap.  Their parents are living longer than expected, depleting their savings to pay the heavy costs of medical and nursing home care. (Gist and Figueiredo, 2006) In order the maintain a comfortable standard of living in later years, the average age of retirement may have to rise by at least ten years, thus reversing the century-long trend toward earlier retirement. (Siegel, 2006) </div> <bR> <div> Those who need to continue working, at least part time, will choose to live where they find good-paying jobs, and Florida's poorly diversified economy will offer relatively few opportunities. A dwindling supply of affordable housing will be another deterrent for those of limited means as apartment buildings are converted to condos, modest houses are replaced with McMansions, and mobile home parks are razed for gated communities. Forced to compete with low-paid service workers for reasonably priced housing, retirees will look for better values elsewhere.  (Hull, 2006) </div> <bR> <div> Other states (and even countries) will undercut Florida's longtime advantage by offering similar tax incentives, competitive eldercare services, cheaper housing, reasonably priced home insurance, less congested roads, and a more benign climate. (Frey, 2001; Watkins, 1994)  </div> <bR> <div> According to this alternative future, Florida may continue to attract the affluent boomers, especially to coastal areas, but will see a decrease among those with limited fixed incomes.  The result - a growing gap between rich and poor, perhaps wider than the national average. The wealth disparity will affect the political calculus. Those who are well off will have little interest in expanded benefits and services (especially if taxes and fees must increase to pay for them), and the less affluent will lack the political influence to win improvements in the quality of eldercare.  <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates_florida_senate_president.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">Florida will become less hospitable to retirees with modest incomes.</A></div> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>