BETTING ON CONTINUITY

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="062b85a3.jpg"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#EEEEEE" FACE="Arial" ><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></FONT><B>    </B><B> |     </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>home</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS"><B>NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS"><B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES"><B>FIVE THEMES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH"><B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO"><B>A SIMILAR SCENARIO</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION"><B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE"><B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B></A><B>   |   </B><B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES"><B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES"><B>REFERENCES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE"><B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey"><B>Florida Futures Survey</B></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=250 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="063fab83.jpg"> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="07176730.gif" border=0 width="118" height="115" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES">NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS">NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS">PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES">FIVE THEMES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH">ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</A></div> <div> <A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO">A SIMILAR SCENARIO</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION">CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</A></div> <div> <A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE">AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</A></div> <div> <B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B></div> <div> <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES">REFERENCES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE">POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey">Florida Futures Survey</A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 width="100%" BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000" background="06107073.jpg"> <div> <B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>A pivotal prediction is a conjecture about the continuity (or discontinuity) of historical processes. </B></I></div> <bR> <div> Whether the future corresponds more closely to <I>Megatrends'</I> “boomer invasion” scenario or the “widening wealth gap” alternative depends on whether the historical process turns out to be continuous or discontinuous. </div> <bR> <div> The argument for continuity traces a long chain of contingencies that connects a pivotal prediction about the future to a pivotal event in the past. For the <I>Megatrends'</I> authors, a highly consequential pivotal event in the history of Florida was the military buildup during the Second World War when the federal government built railroads, airfields, ports and bases throughout the state. </div> <div>  </div> <div> This massive construction endowed Florida with the essential infrastructure to support the tourism and real estate industries that thrived in the postwar years. The 1950s boom was further reinforced by the creation of the interstate highway system, the widespread use of DDT, the introduction of air-conditioning, and an innovation in real estate selling that made it possible for ordinary working people to afford to retire to Florida. </div> <bR> <div> Mass marketing was revolutionized by Frank Mackle whose idea was to sell empty lots on the Gulf Coast for ten dollars down with the last payment due when the buyers retired. As Mackle explained his success -- “Everything works toward helping us. We've got doctors trying to get people to live longer. We've got the unions trying to get people to retire quicker. We've got a tremendous growth of pension funds; social security is getting stronger”. (quoted in Mormino, 2005, pages 54, 55)</div> <bR> <div> The widely shared expectation of an influx of retiring boomers assumes a continuity of historical processes. The factors that have driven population growth in the past fifty years are presumed to persist for at least another twenty. The alternative future foresees likelihood for discontinuity - that the momentum will falter as counter forces come into play. </div> <bR> <div> Historical research that has modeled past events as networks of causal influences has found that historical processes are generally “quite robust to perturbation. In retrospect, <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates_my_own_view_is_that_these_sudden.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">there are few real surprises</A>. “Butterfly effects are possible, but exceedingly rare.” (Bearman, 2003)  </div> <bR> <div> The durability of trends, once strongly established, is a factor favoring the confirmation of <I>Megatrend's</I> pivotal prediction. (Davis, 2007) There is a strong likelihood that a burgeoning of the senior population will someday be recognized as a pivotal event in the state's history.  <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates_the_word_has_gotten_out_about_florida_.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">But any hint that the rate of incoming migration is slackening </A>may signal a perturbation that will disrupt long-term patterns and becloud a clear vision of the future.  It will be a clue that history is changing the subject. </div> <bR> <bR> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>