FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="062b85a3.jpg"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#EEEEEE" FACE="Arial" ><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></FONT><B>    </B><B> |     </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>home</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS"><B>NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS"><B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES"><B>FIVE THEMES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH"><B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO"><B>A SIMILAR SCENARIO</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION"><B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE"><B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY"><B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B></A><B>   |   </B><B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES"><B>REFERENCES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE"><B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey"><B>Florida Futures Survey</B></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=250 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="063fab83.jpg"> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="07176730.gif" border=0 width="118" height="115" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES">NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS">NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS">PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES">FIVE THEMES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH">ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</A></div> <div> <A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO">A SIMILAR SCENARIO</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION">CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</A></div> <div> <A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE">AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY">BETTING ON CONTINUITY</A></div> <div> <B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B></div> <div> <A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES">REFERENCES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE">POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey">Florida Futures Survey</A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 width="100%" BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000" background="06107073.jpg"> <div> <B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B></div> <div> <B>Predictions that belong to the same domain ...</B></div> <bR> <div> <B> <A NAME="link_node_models_work_best_on_small"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></B><B>Link-node models work best on small units</B>, where the predictions all pertain to a well-defined domain of knowledge and experience. </div> <div> See. Alex Wright, <I>Glut:Mastering InformationThrough the Ages</I> (Joseph Henry Press, 2007), page 204. </div> <bR> <div> <B>There are few real surprises ... </B></div> <bR> <div>  <A NAME="my_own_view_is_that_these_sudden"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A>"My own view is that <A HREF="http://nationaljournal.com/about/njweekly/stories/2007/0907nj1.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://nationaljournal.com/about/njweekl">these sudden shifts throughout history, when viewed in retrospect, were not all that sudden,</A>" said Richard Kohn, a professor of national security studies at the University of North Carolina. "More often they came in the wake of trends that had already been building, and served as an epiphany or clarifying event for an American public that already sensed a lot of uncertainty in the world." -- "Game changers", <I>National Journal</I> (James Kitfield), 07Sept07<FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#330000" FACE="Arial" >) </FONT><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#330000" FACE="Arial" ><U>http://nationaljournal.com/about/njweekly/stories/2007/0907nj1.htm</U></FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>Florida will become less hospitable ... </B></div> <bR> <div>  <A NAME="florida_senate_president"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A>Florida Senate President Ken Pruitt said it was important for the state to invest in a growing high-tech business environment and reduce the state's reliance on the service, tourism and construction industry. "The days of moving to Florida with $500 in your pocket and moving into a mobile home, not that that's bad, and living in paradise are gone," Pruitt said. "<B>Florida is no longer going to be a cheap state to live in </B>-- t<B>hat's not all bad</B>." Pruitt said slower population growth would allow the state to focus on "quality of life" rather than unmanageable sprawl.  <A HREF="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080110/NEWS/801100377" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/200">- “Mixed messages on state economy”, </A><A HREF="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080110/NEWS/801100377" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/200"><I>Sarasota</I></A><A HREF="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080110/NEWS/801100377" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/200"> </A><A HREF="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080110/NEWS/801100377" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/200"><I>Herald Tribune</I></A><A HREF="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080110/NEWS/801100377" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/200">, 10Jan08</A></div> <bR> <div> <B>Migration to Florida is beginning to slacken</B></div> <bR> <div> <B> <A NAME="the_word_has_gotten_out_about_florida_"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></B><B>T</B>he word has gotten out about Florida. It is not the paradise that many people once thought it was. According to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Florida's population grew only 1.1 percent in 2007 -- compared to 1.8 percent in 2006 -- the slowest pace in 10 years. More people, especially retirees, are looking to states like Georgia, South and North Carolina and Tennessee to spend their golden years. There is no mystery to why Florida has lost some of the shine in its image: devastating hurricanes, expensive housing, high insurance rates and unfair property taxes. These concerns have cast such a negative pall on Florida that 37 percent fewer people moved here in 2007 than 2006.  --- <A HREF="http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/story/369424.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/edito"><I>Miami Herald</I></A><A HREF="http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/story/369424.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/edito"> editorial, 07Jan08</A></div> <bR> <div> For the first time in its history, Broward County lost population. Traditionally one of the nation's fastest growing counties, in the past two years, nearly 56,000 more residents left the county than moved in from other states. Only two other metropolitan areas, Detroit and Cleveland, lost more people than Broward did during this period. "It's very clear that growth has slowed down substantially," said Stan Smith, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. "It's partly due to the economic slowdown and the slowdown in job creation and the housing problems Florida has been facing." The loss would have been more dramatic had it not been for newborns and the continuing influx of immigrants. Since 2000, three out of every four new Broward residents were foreign-born. While Broward was hardest hit, nine other Florida counties also  lost population. -<A HREF="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbcensus0320sbmar20,0,3162113.story" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/b"> </A><I>South Florida Sun-Sentinel</I>: Broward losing population for first time in history, 20Mar08</div> <bR> <div> <B>Income inequality is growing, with implications for health care and housing</B></div> <bR> <div> The gap between the wealthiest and the poorest families in Florida is widening, impacting housing and health care coverage according to a new report by the Research Institute on Social and Economic Policy (RISEP)  at Florida International University, released 09 April 2008.</div> <bR> <div> Over the last fifteen years the average income of the top 5% of families have increased by more than 55%, while the incomes of middle income families have increased by 16% and for low-income families by 15%. Florida’s top fifth of families have incomes 7.5 times the bottom fifth, up from 6.3 times just fifteen years ago. Florida ranks 15<FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >th</FONT> out of the 50 states in income inequality.</div> <bR> <div> Upper income families are over two and a half times as likely as low-income families to own their own homes, and 22% more likely to have every household member covered by health insurance. The percentages of households with all members covered have decreased for all income groups except to top 20%, which actually increased from five years ago. </div> <bR> <div> Emily Eisenhauer, co-author of RISEP’s report, states, “From this report we can see that income inequality is related to disparities in housing and health care – two very important aspects of a middle class standard of living. Without decent housing and access to health care how can we talk about helping families to move up the ladder? Now that we are facing a recession it’s even more important to support low-income working families, and there are a lot of things that Florida can do without waiting for federal action.”  <A HREF="http://www.risep-fiu.org/reports/inequality2008_factsheet.pdf" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.risep-fiu.org/reports/inequal">Link to the fact sheet of the stud</A>y.  <A HREF="http://www.risep-fiu.org/reports/Growing_Divide_2008.pdf" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.risep-fiu.org/reports/Growing"> Link to the complete study. </A></div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>Budget cuts in education, transportation, and economic development will impede Florida's efforts to diversify its economy by attracting high tech industries.</B></div> <bR> <div> <B>Affluent retiress will resist increased spending on education and social services. </B></div> <bR> <div> David Denslow, a University of Florida economist, said steep budget cuts for 2008-2009 will exacerbate the state's long-standing business-development problems. Among them: Its continuing appeal to increasingly affluent retirees.</div> <bR> <div> "The problem is that retirees will control the political process," Denslow said. "And we don't know how concerned retirees will be about education." Even after the economic downturn eases and the real-estate market stabilizes, fixed-income retirees might not support costly programs that are important to business.</div> <bR> <div> "Our K-through-12 educational system has to be good enough so that managers of the businesses we want to attract will want to send their children to it," Denslow said. "Businesses are also concerned about the quality of the graduates. Retirees might not be so concerned."</div> <bR> <div> Denslow said that, unless the state devises sustainable revenue sources for the sorts of programs businesses want, Florida will have a hard time competing with other states that are also trying to lure companies.  -- <I>Orlando Sentinel:</I> Selling of Florida may be tougher because of budget cuts (Christopher Boyd), 28May08. </div> <bR> <div> <B>High tech industries will avoid Florida if its schools cannot produce skilled workers.</B></div> <bR> <div> Education funding was slashed for 2008-2009, forcing schools and universities to cut budgets, reduce enrollments and eliminate staff. Public schools will lose $332 million -- a cut that amounts to $131 for each student. That's on top of two years of reductions that sliced $185 per student. Educators foresee that the cuts will impair efforts to improve education. But they will also have an effect on business development; companies will be less likely to move to or expand in a state with an education system that's falling in nationwide rankings, which will make it harder to find skilled workers or recruit out-of-state talent. -- <I>Orlando Sentinel:</I> Selling of Florida may be tougher because of budget cuts (Christopher Boyd), 28May08. </div> <bR> <div> <B>The aggressive biotech initiative will flounder without incentives to attract life science companies and research institutes. </B></div> <bR> <div> In the short run, the budget-cutting is also eliminating incentive money: This spring the Legislature eliminated the Innovation Incentive Fund, a program that received $250 million in the current fiscal year to lure life-science institutes to the state. The program, which provided grants matched by city and county governments, was responsible for attracting the Burnham Institute for Medical Research to Orlando, as well as other businesses to locations across the state. Enterprise Florida lobbied to keep the fund alive but couldn't persuade lawmakers to go along. -- <I>Orlando Sentinel:</I> Selling of Florida may be tougher because of budget cuts (Christopher Boyd), 28May08. </div> <bR> <div> <B>The "silver tsunami" of retiring baby boomers has been vastly overestimated. </B></div> <bR> <div> The number of boomers who retire will be far smaller than the oft cited 78 million, according to recent projections by the <A HREF="http://www.thecoynepartnership.com/coynereport.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.thecoynepartnership.com/coyne">Coyne Partnership</A>.  The actual number of retirees will reach only 46 million in 2017.  If many boomers decide to continue working (the trend since 1994) the number will likely approach 36 million.  Since there are already 35 million retirees in the U.S., there will be essentially no growth in the total number of retirees. If  those who never worked or worked only part time are included in the calculations, the growth rate of the retirement population will still be less than 3% , more likely less than 1 percent. </div> <bR> <div> This much smaller projection will significantly ease the pressures on Social Security and Medicare, and reduce the impending labor shortages that have been forecast.   On the other hand, the anticipated market for financial services aimed at retirees will not materialize, leaving banks, mutual funds and insurance companies deprived of a major new revenue source they had been counting on for future profits.  Also disappointing will be the demand for retirement homes and leisure activities geared for older adults with lots of free time and disposable income.  - <I>Business Week Online</I>: When the “silver tsunami” fails to hit. (21May08) </div> <div> http://www.businessweek.com/managing/content/may2008/ca20080521_909243.htm?link_position=link8" <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Arial" ><U>http://www.businessweek.com/managing/content/may2008/ca20080521_909243.htm?link_position=link8</U></FONT></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>