FLORIDA FUTURES FORUM
A running compilation of predictions about the issues and events
that will influence Florida's political, economic and social agendas
in the years to come.

The future of Florida is unpredictable.  But it is not unimaginable.
It is imagined all the time as people debate issues and argue the pros and cons of various proposals and their possible outcomes. Policy disputes are almost always fueled by conflicting predictions about the consequences of action - or inaction.

Florida Futures Forum compiles these predictions from a wide range of sources: news articles and editorials, research reports and policy papers, speeches and lectures, online archives and blogs, interviews and panel discussions.

But the result is not simply a list of predictions.  It is a relational database that is structured as a network of predictions.

Predictions belong in networks because they rarely stand alone.  A prediction is typically linked to another prediction, either as a cause or consequence.  Predictions are most persuasive when we can see a clear path from here to there. They are more likely to influence our thinking about the future when we can envision the connectedness of future events ... when we can imagine plausible scenarios of "if...then" contingencies.

Whenever predictions are found linked in a source document, they are linked in the database, as well.  Most predictions are linked to at least one other; a few are linked to many.  

This pattern of connectivity produces a network that is represented by Cmaps, a tool for constructing conceptual models of  knowledge domains.  Predictions are a form of knowledge because they encapsulate what we know - or think we know - about how the world works. Cmaps display predictions as nodes and relationships as arrows that connect the nodes and point to “what will happen next”.

A Cmap provides a comprehensive overview of the network of relationships. It discovers connections among events that may have been overlooked and gives us a way to judge the relative importance of a prediction in making sense of the future. Connectedness is a measure of coherence and a prediction with many links is one that people believe will explain a lot.

As expectations change over time, the database is continuously revised and the Cmaps reconfigured.
The database of predictions is regularly updated to provide a dynamic status report on how people are thinking about their future.  It tracks the evolution of expectations as some predictions are confirmed by the course of events, while others are discredited or rendered irrelevant. The database undergoes constant revision as new issues emerge and old ones mutate or atrophy.
The reconfiguration of Cmaps of the future is loosely analogous to the way the brain wires and rewires itself as an individual acquires life experiences.

The initial “wiring” of the Cmaps was based on a hundred or so predictions and forecasts drawn from Florida's Megatrends: Critical Issues in Florida by David R. Colburn and Lance deHaven Smith.  In this book, the authors envisaged the issues that would come to dominate the public agenda in the first decade or two of the 21st century.  All the predictions were either the causes or the consequences of other predictions and these causal relationships were diagrammed in a series of Cmaps that captured the main arguments and principal themes of the book.

Some of the Megatrends predictions were more important than others. The Cmaps identified which had the greatest "explanatory reach".
The connectedness of 17 Megatrends predictions marked them as having the greatest "explanatory reach", and one was linked (directly or indirectly) to most of the others -- the prediction that a huge number of baby boomers will retire to Florida.
The "well-connected" predictions -- the ones likely to be the most consequential:
Huge numbers of baby boomers will retire to Florida.
Florida will gain population through internal migration.
Rural areas will be overrun by urban sprawl.
Infrastructure investment will lag behind growth.
Tax revenues will fall short of public needs
State and local governments will seek new sources of revenue.
Tax reform will falter on fairness issues.
Florida will underfund education,  health care and social services.          
Cash-strapped communities will cut back on services and facilities.
Seniors will demand better eldercare
Seniors will become politically active.
Minorities will outnumber whites.          
Minority interests will conflict with white priorities.
Florida politics will be highly contentious
International trade and technology will become important to state's economy.
Florida's economy will depend less on tourism, agriculture and construction.
Florida will become more Sunbelt than Southern.

Cmaps delineate themes - the clusters of related predictions that coalesce around the well-connected.
Megatrends had five prominent theme-clusters:  (1) the growing political influence of the elderly commensurate with their increasing numbers, (2) the perennial difficulty of finding enough revenue from taxes and fees to meet the state's needs, (3) the expansion of commercial and cultural ties between Florida and the countries of the hemisphere, (4) the widening demographic gap between whites and minority populations, and (5) the inexorable creep of development into rural areas.

Each of these themes is still relevant, several years after the publication of Florida's Megatrends in 2002, as are all 17 of the most consequential predictions. But predictions continue to be added to the database as new issues come to the fore and old issues are redefined by events.

New predictions center on the economics of the immigration issue, the cost of competing for Hemispheric trade, and the credit risk for municipal bonds.
Labor shortages will develop as the Federal bureaucracy is overwhelmed by a deluge of visa applications from foreign workers.
Agriculture, construction, health care and tourism will become less important to Florida's economy because of the loss of cheap labor.
Florida will face stiff competition in trade from other port cities in the U.S. and nearby countries.
A dense cluster of corporate managers will create a critical mass of international business talent in South Florida that will generate innovations and new ventures.
The fiscal difficulties of local communities will be aggravated by turmoil in the municipal bond market.

Unease about the potential political and social impact of a growing minority population (predominantly Hispanic) has deepened into alarm about how the popular crackdown on illegal immigrants will conflict with Florida's need for cheap labor. The recent spate of predictions about the economic consequences of the issue is found in the section Cost of Immigration Control.

Optimism about a hemisphere-wide free trade zone (headquartered in Miami) has given way to more realistic assessments of the impact of globalization -both its opportunities and its perils. Predictions about Florida's profit and loss from globalization are compiled in the section, Free Trade vs.Neopopulism.

A balanced budget in Florida depends on a strong housing market.  The collapse of real estate sales and the upheaval in mortgage banking are serious impediments to the state's capacity to fund its programs. Now the subprime disaster has created turmoil in the once-staid municipal bond market, making it difficult and costly for some local communities even to borrow. "Florida," observes the Financial TImes, "at the epicenter of the subprime mortgage meltdown, is also doing its bit to rock confidence in public finances." (Lex, 04Dec07)


  A more detailed discussion is found in "Networks of Possible Futures: A Modeling and Critique of Florida's Megatrends" by Raymond L. Johnson in Hopes and Visions for the 21st Century, edited by Timothy C. Mack, published by the World Future Society, 2007.