CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="062b85a3.jpg"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#EEEEEE" FACE="Arial" ><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></FONT><B>    </B><B> |     </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>home</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS"><B>NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS"><B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES"><B>FIVE THEMES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH"><B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO"><B>A SIMILAR SCENARIO</B></A><B>   |   </B><B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE"><B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY"><B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES"><B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES"><B>REFERENCES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE"><B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey"><B>Florida Futures Survey</B></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=250 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="063fab83.jpg"> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="07176730.gif" border=0 width="118" height="115" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES">NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS">NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS">PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES">FIVE THEMES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH">ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</A></div> <div> <A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO">A SIMILAR SCENARIO</A></div> <div> <B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B></div> <div> <A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE">AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY">BETTING ON CONTINUITY</A></div> <div> <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES">REFERENCES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE">POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey">Florida Futures Survey</A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 width="100%" BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000" background="06107073.jpg"> <div> <B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B></div> <bR> <div> To envision an alternative future, imagine that a pivotal prediction fails.</div> <bR> <div> A recognition of the network's potential weakness at this critical point reveals where a contrasting, even opposite, view could originate. Alternative futures can be generated by imagining different outcomes for the prediction most critical to network cohesion.  Change this initial expectation and many others along its chain of contingent predictions change as well. </div> <bR> <div> The network is vulnerable to the possibility that the senior population will grow less than expected, perhaps far less.  Without “explosive” growth, Florida's future might be significantly different from that foreseen in <I>Megatrends</I>. A significant slowing of in-migration would alter the economic and political dynamics of Florida and signal a breakdown of the historical process that has so long propelled population growth.  It would be certain disrupt the system of expectations that the <I>Megatrends</I> network describes and undercut the authors' comprehensive theory of Florida's future.</div> <div> <U> </U></div> <div> Few now question the forecast of an influx of retiring boomers. </div> <bR> <div> One study of migration trends concluded that while Florida will lose some percentage of retirees to other locations, the state is likely to remain their prime destination. According to one analyst of mobility patterns, “Florida will still be swamped”. (Longino, 2000; Longino and Bradley, 2003)</div> <bR> <div> The real estate and construction industries share a strong economic interest in the accuracy of this projection.  No prediction has been more influential in persuading banks and speculative investors to finance the huge expansion of residential real estate throughout Florida. The consensus outlook is for millions of wealthy baby boomers - the “affloridians” - to buy seaside condos and golf course villas, buffering the state from any downturn in the housing market that may occur in less demographically favored parts of the country. (Arthur, 2006) </div> <bR> <div> The economic impact of free-spending boomers (who control 75% of the nation's net worth and half of its discretionary income) is a popular investment theme among stock market strategists who foresee strong earnings not only for the housing and real estate industries, but for the health care, financial services, travel and leisure sectors. (Johnson, 2001)</div> <bR> <div> A new economics of aging may make Florida a less attractive destination for many boomer retirees.</div> <bR> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>