ONE PREDICTION'S REACH

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="062b85a3.jpg"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#EEEEEE" FACE="Arial" ><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></FONT><B>    </B><B> |     </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>home</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS"><B>NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS"><B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES"><B>FIVE THEMES</B></A><B>   |   </B><B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO"><B>A SIMILAR SCENARIO</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION"><B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE"><B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY"><B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES"><B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES"><B>REFERENCES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE"><B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey"><B>Florida Futures Survey</B></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=250 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="063fab83.jpg"> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="07176730.gif" border=0 width="118" height="115" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES">NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS">NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS">PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES">FIVE THEMES</A></div> <div> <B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B></div> <div> <A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO">A SIMILAR SCENARIO</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION">CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</A></div> <div> <A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE">AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY">BETTING ON CONTINUITY</A></div> <div> <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES">REFERENCES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE">POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey">Florida Futures Survey</A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 width="100%" BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000" background="06107073.jpg"> <div> <B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B></div> <bR> <div> The overlap among the five clusters indicated that the Megatrends network had a larger thematic organization - a long chain of contingent possibilities that integrated many of the more important predictions into a single cohesive structure. The longest such sequence, and the prediction that originated it, was discovered by an algorithm that serially connected one prediction to another until there were no more links to follow. </div> <bR> <div> This prediction - <I><B>The senior population will begin to explode by 2010</B></I> - had the longest reach of any in the Megatrends network. It was serially linked to 42 percent of all other predictions in the network, entraining nine of the 11 most interconnected predictions and traversing four of the five thematic clusters. </div> <bR> <div> But while the chain had a single point of origin, it branched into five points of termination. Each of the five sequences had the narrative arc of a scenario.  Where it ended told us how the story will finally turn out. </div> <bR> <div> Megatrends foresaw these five “eventual” outcomes for the rapid growth of the older adult population:</div> <bR> <div> 1. <B>Service sectors will predominate as much as ever</B>. The growing population of the aged and the aging creates a huge market for services. As a result, most new jobs in Florida continue to be in the low-wage service sector, thwarting the state's efforts to diversify its economy. </div> <bR> <div> 2. <B>Runaway development will provoke a political backlash.  </B>The influx of retirees promotes new development in rural and semi-rural areas and puts additional stress on the environment and water supply, and more traffic on already congested highways. Poorly regulated growth becomes a major political issue.</div> <bR> <div> 3. <B>Boomers' priorities will deviate from the Republican Party stance.  </B>The boomer generation's advocacy of increased public spending on health care and eldercare services conflicts with the orthodox small government, anti-tax position of the GOP - foreshadowing similar conflicts elsewhere in the U.S.  </div> <bR> <div> 4. <B>Growth in programs will enhance governor's power. </B>The political success of the older voters enhances the power of the governor who is responsible for administering expanded programs for the elderly.  The legislature tries to reclaim some of its diminished authority, leading to a more combative political climate in Tallahassee.   </div> <bR> <div> <B>5. Florida will pay a price for neglecting its minorities. </B>Increased spending on eldercare reduces funding for minority programs because Hispanics and blacks fail to build a coalition strong enough to counter the influence of the senior vote.  This lop-sided allocation of public spending has a long-term social and economic impact. Among these: a rising crime rate that occurs as neglected children-at-risk reach adolescence and young adulthood.  A high incidence of crime deters tourism and discourages businesses from locating in the state. A worsening crime problem has another serious implication: seniors will move out of areas where they fear muggings and break-ins.  The communities they abandon will suffer a loss of revenue and a deterioration of services.  Derelict neighborhoods breed more crime, further accelerating their decline.</div> <bR> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>