PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="062b85a3.jpg"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#EEEEEE" FACE="Arial" ><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></FONT><B>    </B><B> |     </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>home</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS"><B>NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES"><B>FIVE THEMES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH"><B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO"><B>A SIMILAR SCENARIO</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION"><B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE"><B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY"><B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES"><B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES"><B>REFERENCES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE"><B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey"><B>Florida Futures Survey</B></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=250 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="063fab83.jpg"> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="07176730.gif" border=0 width="118" height="115" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES">NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS">NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B></div> <div> <A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES">FIVE THEMES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH">ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</A></div> <div> <A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO">A SIMILAR SCENARIO</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION">CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</A></div> <div> <A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE">AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY">BETTING ON CONTINUITY</A></div> <div> <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES">REFERENCES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="postscript_on_the_water_issu.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE">POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey">Florida Futures Survey</A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 width="100%" BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000" background="06107073.jpg"> <div> <B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B></div> <bR> <div> In the <I>Megatrends</I> network, the significance of each prediction was determined by its positional properties. The definition of relative causal influence was a qualitative one, inching toward the quantitative.</div> <bR> <div> A prediction that was directly connected to several others usually occupied a nexus or intersection of the network where causal influences both converged and diverged. (Carley, 1997) The number of links indicated the relative weight it played in the authors' thinking about the future. It was a “core concept” (Campos and Gaspar, 1995) if it occurred in several different chains of argument. </div> <bR> <div> The following eleven predictions in <I>Florida's Megatrends</I> were directly linked to at least four other predictions in the network.</div> <bR> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Budget gap will widen between revenue and public needs. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Cash-strapped communities will cut back on services and facilities. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">State and local governments will underfund education, health care and social services. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Florida will continue to attract large numbers of immigrants. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Florida's legislature will reexamine the state's tax structure. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Elected officials will respond to political pressure from older voters.  </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">International trade and commerce will become more important to the economy. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Political priorities of whites will conflict with those of minorities. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Senior population will begin to explode by 2010. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Seniors will demand better eldercare. </div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700f000000000.png" HEIGHT="16" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Urban sprawl will continue to encroach upon rural and semi-rural areas. </div> <bR> <div> These eleven were directly linked to about half of the other predictions in the <I>Megatrends</I> network<I><B>. </B></I><B> </B>By expanding this list to include predictions linked to at least three others, more than 80 percent of all predictions were reached.  There was a strong connectivity running through <I>Megatrends</I>; only a few predictions fell outside the several clusters of densely interlinked predictions that dominated the network structure.                                         </div> <bR> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>