POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="062b85a3.jpg"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#EEEEEE" FACE="Arial" ><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></FONT><B>    </B><B> |     </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>home</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES"><B>NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS"><B>NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS"><B>PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES"><B>FIVE THEMES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH"><B>ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO"><B>A SIMILAR SCENARIO</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION"><B>CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE"><B>AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY"><B>BETTING ON CONTINUITY</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES"><B>FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</B></A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES"><B>REFERENCES</B></A><B>   |   </B><B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey"><B>Florida Futures Survey</B></A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=250 BGCOLOR="#336666" TEXT="#080000" background="063fab83.jpg"> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="07176730.gif" border=0 width="118" height="115" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES">NETWORKS OF POSSIBLE FUTURES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="megatrends_as_a_concept_map.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS">NETWORKS OF PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="pivotal_predictions.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS">PIVOTAL PREDICTIONS</A></div> <div> <A HREF="five_themes.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FIVE THEMES">FIVE THEMES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_reach.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="ONE PREDICTIONS REACH">ONE PREDICTION'S REACH</A></div> <div> <A HREF="a_similar_scenario.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="A SIMILAR SCENARIO">A SIMILAR SCENARIO</A></div> <div> <A HREF="one_predictions_failure.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION">CONSEQUENCES OF A FAILED PREDICTION</A></div> <div> <A HREF="an_alternative_future.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE">AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURE</A></div> <div> <A HREF="betting_on_robustness.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="BETTING ON CONTINUITY">BETTING ON CONTINUITY</A></div> <div> <A HREF="footnotes_and_updates.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES">FOOTNOTES AND UPDATES</A></div> <div> <A HREF="references.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="REFERENCES">REFERENCES</A></div> <div> <B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B></div> <div> <A HREF="id15.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Florida Futures Survey">Florida Futures Survey</A></div> <bR> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 width="100%" BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000" background="06107073.jpg"> <div> <B>POSTSCRIPT ON THE WATER ISSUE</B></div> <bR> <div>  <A NAME="a__network_of_predictions_about"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A>A  NETWORK OF PREDICTIONS ABOUT FLORIDA'S WATER PROSPECTS </div> <bR> <div> Networks can model not only the causal thinking of individual authors, such as Colburn and deHaven-Smith (2002), but also the collective understanding of an issue that circulates within a community of informed opinion. </div> <bR> <div> A relational database of predictions about the future of Florida's water supply was compiled from a variety of published sources, reflecting a wide range of expert views and encompassing rival interpretations and conflicting positions.</div> <bR> <div> A network representation of the causal relationships among more than 200 of these predictions showed a structure similar to the <I>Megatrends</I> network.</div> <bR> <div> One prediction stood out as either the cause or consequence of many other predictions in the network. This was the pivotal prediction that <I><B>water costs will rise significantly for both residential and commercial users</B></I>.  There was little expectation that rates could remain unchanged, as utilities will be forced, because of continued population growth, to invest heavily to find new water sources and treat pollution in existing ones. </div> <bR> <div> The end of cheap water is foreseen to have many ramifications.  More costly water will slow development, trap governments in a budgetary bind, foment political discord, instigate privatization schemes, spur interest in nuclear powered desalination, alter water use habits, make the agricultural business even less profitable, lead to tighter regulation of phosphate mining, and stir up more environmental controversies.  </div> <bR> <div> As with the <I>Megatrends</I> network, the predictions coalesced into a few thematic clusters, in which the pivotal prediction was a recurring element. The discovery of a cohesive network structure (rather than one fragmented into many short chains) reflected a substantial agreement within the circle of informed opinion about which predictions were likely to have the most consequential outcomes, if confirmed by the course of events.</div> <bR> <div> The relative importance of a prediction can shift, however, as the network expands.  It gains whenever it attracts links from newly added predictions. But it loses if it becomes so discredited or irrelevant that it no longer attracts new links. A contrary prediction - that <I><B>water will remain relatively cheap</B></I><I> </I>- gained some structural prominence when linked to a new prediction that <I>carbon-nanotube membranes could reduce the cost of desalination by 75 percent</I>.  The evolution of an issue can be tracked by observing this periodic “rewiring” or reconfiguration of the network over time. </div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>