COST OF IMMIGRATION CONTROL

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=90 BGCOLOR="#666666" TEXT="#080000" background="001b85a3.jpg"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FFFFFF" FACE="Arial" ><B>FLORIDA FUTURES FORUM</B></FONT><B>    </B><B> |     </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FLORIDA FUTURES FORUM"><B>home</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FLORIDA FUTURES FORUM">FLORIDA FUTURES FORUM</A><B>   |   </B><B>COST OF IMMIGRATION CONTROL</B><B>   |   </B><A HREF="free_trade_vs_neopopulism.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FREE TRADE vs NEOPOPULISM">FREE TRADE vs NEOPOPULISM</A><B>   |   </B><A HREF="municipal_bond_turmoil.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="TURMOIL IN MUNICIPAL FINANCE">TURMOIL IN MUNICIPAL FINANCE</A></div> <div> </div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=210 BGCOLOR="#666666" TEXT="#080000" background="00209093.jpg"> <div> <IMG SRC="01a76730.gif" border=0 width="118" height="115" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FLORIDA FUTURES FORUM"><B>FLORIDA FUTURES FORUM</B></A></div> <div> <B><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b700c8dddddd00.png" HEIGHT="13" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">COST OF IMMIGRATION CONTROL</B></div> <div> <A HREF="free_trade_vs_neopopulism.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="FREE TRADE vs NEOPOPULISM"><B>FREE TRADE vs NEOPOPULISM</B></A></div> <div> <A HREF="municipal_bond_turmoil.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="TURMOIL IN MUNICIPAL FINANCE"><B>TURMOIL IN MUNICIPAL FINANCE</B></A></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> </td> <td valign="top" height=390 width="100%" BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> COST OF IMMIGRATION CONTROL</div> <div> <B><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b7011833333300.png" HEIGHT="19" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">Agriculture, construction, health care, and tourism will become less important to Florida's economy because of the loss of cheap labor.</B></div> <div> <B><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b7011833333300.png" HEIGHT="19" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">The shortage of workers will be due as much to bureaucratic bungling as to stricter enforcement of immigration law.</B></div> <bR> <bR> <div> It is hard to find predictions of an orderly outcome to the government's attempt to restrict the employment of illegal workers in the U.S. Many foresee that the screening process will be unable to cope with the deluge of applications --<A HREF="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/21/AR2007112102419_pf.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con"> especially since Homeland Security has repeatedly underestimated the demand.</A></div> <div> .</div> <div> <IMG SRC="024e72b0.jpg" border=0 width="999" height="555" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> The prediction that information systems will be overwhelmed  has several ramifications for businesses that depend on foreign workers.  It is an expectation that influences much thinking about the future.</div> <div>        </div> <div> <IMG SRC="026e7a90.jpg" border=0 width="999" height="425" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div>  </div> <div> One expected outcome is a shortage of workers. Another outcome is costly and time-consuming paperwork, caused by an error-prone and inefficient system for screening workers.</div> <bR> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="028e90a0.jpg" border=0 width="1001" height="266" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> The prediction that <B>Business wilt face worker shortages</B> leads to a different series of consequences for each of Florida's key industries -- <B>agriculture, construction, health care and the hospitality sector</B>. It also has implications for the economy and politics of Mexico.</div> <div> The dependence of major Florida industries on immigrant labor is documented in "<A HREF="http://www.risep-fiu.org/reports/immigrants_spring_2007.pdf" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.risep-fiu.org/reports/immigra">Immigrants in Florida: Characteristics and Contributions</A>" published in May 2007 by the Research Institute on Social and Economic Policy, Florida International University. T<I>he Sarasota Herald Tribune</I> reported this study In an article, <A HREF="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20070730/BUSINESS/707300325/0/RSS01" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/200">Debunking the immigration myth</A>. </div> <div> Nationally, about 20 percent of illegal immigrants work in construction, 17 percent in leisure and hospitality industries, 14 percent in manufacturing and 11 percent in wholesale and retail trade.  In addition, illegal immigrants represent a substantial share of overall employment in quite a few industries, some of which require extensive skills and training. They may make up at least 10 percent of the work force in construction, leisure and hospitality, and in agriculture and related industries, according to figures calculated by the Pew Hispanic Center. But in specific occupations like cooking, painting, washing cars, packaging by hand and installation of carpets and floors, they may make up 20 percent or more.  --  <A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/03/business/yourmoney/03view.html?_r=3&pagewanted=2&oref" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/03/busine">Shattering stereotypes about immigrant labor,</A> <I>New York Times</I>, 03Jun07.</div> <bR> <div> <B>THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR  -- Loss of cheap labor will further erode the viability of Florida's agricultural industry, leading to a sell-off of land to developers and a shift to production outside the country.</B></div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >One foreseen consequence of tough immigration controls is the dwindling importance of agricultural production to Florida's economy. Higher labor costs will compel producers either to sell their land to real estate developers or move their operations to Mexico and Central America where there is a stable source of cheap labor and ready access (due to NAFTA) to markets in North America.  Some may opt to do both as they<A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/05/us/05export.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=us&pagewanted" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/05/us/05e"> "get tired of fighting the fight over immigration"</A>. </FONT>(“Short on labor, farmers in the U.S. shift to Mexico”, <I>New York Times</I>, 05Sep07)</div> <bR> <div> Florida and the federal government will also be deprived of the significant taxes that companies withhold from wages and the workers' contributions to Social Security and Medicare (much of which will never have to be paid out as benefits in the future). </div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B><IMG SRC="022e8370.jpg" border=0 width="1000" height="567" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></div> <bR> <div> Florida Agriculture Commisioner Charles Bronson predicts that <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >without a way to get workers with proper documentation to harvest fruits and vegetables, Florida and the nation could slide into an economic downturn. Not only that, but foreign countries will supply even more of the nation's food, he warns. </FONT><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >(www.palmbeachpost.com, September 19, 2007)</FONT></div> <div> <B> </B></div> <div> <B>THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR -- Higher labor costs will hasten the transition to an industrial model of residential construction. The  result - fewer workers in construction.</B></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Construction companies will run short of cheap labor. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> C<FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >onstruction companies will pay more for labor. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Housing prices will increase. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Affordable housing will be less available. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Construction companies will accelerate the transition to factory-built or "serially produced" homes to control costs. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> Factory-built homes (panelized, modular, or precast) will be erected in less time with fewer workers than conventional construction, with less waste and greater control over the quality of workmanship and materials. ><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> Factory-built homes will cost less. ><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> Industrial model will prevail in Florida. ><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> Construction industry will need fewer employees and sub contactors. ><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> Construction will be less important to Florida's economy. </div> <bR> <div> Precast concrete homes are gaining popularity in Florida because they are quick to put up, well insulated, fire and termite resistant, and stand up to hurricanes.  “Natural disasters, pressure from the insurance industry, changing building codes, and consumer demand for safer, more energy-efficient homes” are driving the industry toward precast concrete technology, according to a building trades official. <A HREF="http://www.sptimes.com/2007/10/13/Homes/Precast_concrete_wall.shtml" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.sptimes.com/2007/10/13/Homes/"> (Quoted by Judy Stark in St. Petersburg Times, 13Oct07)</A></div> <bR> <div> Nationally, modular is growing the fastest on the eastern seaboard, from New England to Florida, and Florida is one of the leaders, along with the Carolinas.  It had been increasing at about 25 to 30 percent a year until the housing correction, and it'll bounce right back with the multi-family that's getting built.  It will increase even more in 2008,” said Michael Wnek, senior vice president of sales and marketing for Palm Harbor Homes, a modular manufacturing company with a factory in Plant City. --<A HREF="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071208/REALESTATE/712080526/1201" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/200"> "The modular alternative," Sarasota Herald Tribune, 08Dec07.</A></div> <bR> <div> <B>An exhibit at the Museum of Modern Art, opening in July 2008, will influence home construction trends by featuring five full scale prefab houses by leading architects. </B></div> <bR> <div> <I>To many people the term “prefab housing” calls to mind trailer parks.  Yet lately prefabricated houses - built off site and then delivered, largely complete - have become fashionable at architecture schools and among an upscale segment of the housing market … Intrinsic to the idea of prefab housing is serial production, an arguably radical notion at a time when one-of-a-kind homes are so valued.  But computerized customization also makes it possible to produce nonidentical objects [reconciling] the idea  of mass production with the individual artistic spirit. </I></div> <div> --<A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/arts/design/08moma.html?_r=1&ref=design&oref" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/arts/d"> “Is Prefab Fab? MoMA plans a show”,</A><A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/arts/design/08moma.html?_r=1&ref=design&oref" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/arts/d"><I> New York Times</I></A><A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/arts/design/08moma.html?_r=1&ref=design&oref" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/arts/d">, 08Jan08.  </A></div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>THE HEALTH CARE SECTOR -- Health care costs in the U.S. will rise still further as hospitals and nursing homes must cope with the loss of low-paid workers</B>.  </div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Health care providers will run short of cheap labor. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Health care providers will pay more for labor. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Costs of health and nursing home care will rise. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Health and nursing home care will be even less affordable for many. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Government will spend more on health care. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Government will seek to contain costs. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >U.S. will begin to reimburse costs of health care obtained in other countries. . </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Health care will become a revenue source of nearby countries. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Quality of health and nursing home care abroad will improve.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Many nurses now working in U.S. will soon retire. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Retirements will aggravate existing nursing shortage. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Immigration restrictions that limit the hiring of foreign nurses will cause serious understaffing in hospitals, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, home health agencies and health clinics. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Aging baby boomers will have difficulty finding affordable health facilities with adequate staffing. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> Immigration restrictions will be eased. </div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/immigration-health-care-reform-collide/story.aspx?guid=%7B52254FB6-1C23-48C7-AA0C-20CF32A3F886%7D" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/im">"The nursing shortage affects not just hospitals, but also nursing facilities, assisted-living facilities, home health agencies and health clinics.</A> The problem will only get worse as baby boomers get older and live longer, placing greater demand on the health-care system. And many of those boomers are nurses themselves, who are already beginning to retire." -- </FONT>"Where immigration and health care reform collide"<I>, Dow Jones Marketplace</I>, 28June07</div> <bR> <div> Rising costs of health care (due, in part, to the loss of low-wage health care workers) will erode Florida's "market share" in medical tourism:</div> <bR> <div> Panama (and other regional competitors) will attract foreign patients with fewer visa restrictions, lower costs, and high quality medical care.<FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" > >>consequently>> </FONT>Florida will become less of a medical mecca for foreign patients seeking care in its hospitals and clinics. <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >-- </FONT><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial Unicode MS" >“Uninsured Americans traveling to Panama for heath care: U.S. residents are trimming exorbitant medical bills by visiting Panama clinics,” South Florida Sun Sentinel, 23Sept07 </FONT></div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B>THE HOSPITALITY SECTOR -- Florida will lose market share in mass market tourism.</B></div> <bR> <div> Hotels and restaurants will replace at least  two-thirds of their workers this year, and each departures will cost a midrange hotel about $5,000 in lost productivity, and recruiting and training a replacement. (Market Metrix)  <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >>consequently></FONT> Immigration controls will reduce the hiring pool. <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >>consequently></FONT> Costs of lost productivity will rise, as will the expense of recruitment and training.  <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >(Wall Street Journal, 17Dec07)</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Hospitality industry will run short of cheap labor. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Labor costs will rise in hospitality industry. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Hotel and restaurant prices will increase. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Prices increases will most hurt hotels and restaurants in the mid-price range. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Industry will be split between luxury and self-service budget, with little in between. </FONT></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Hotel and restaurant prices will increase. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Resorts will lose market share to lower-cost overseas destinations. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Mass market tourism will be less important to Florida's economy.</FONT></div> <div> <A HREF="http://wineandhospitalityjobs.com/newsletter11907.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://wineandhospitalityjobs.com/newsle">In the 21st century, the world economy is a service-economy. Services require people.</A> Therefore, any worker shortages will have a greater impact on the service industries, such as hospitality, leisure, recreation, childcare, healthcare, assisted living, long term care and other personal services. The number of available jobs in the USA is projected to increase by 22 million by 2010. Yet the labor force is projected to increase by only 17 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. </div> <bR> <div> <B>THE IMPACT ON MEXICO -- The loss of dollars will spur Mexico to stimulate internal growth, but antagonism will increase between the two countries.</B></div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Border security will be strengthened. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Immigration crackdown will reduce flow of illegals. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Fewer Mexican workers will be employed in U.S </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/26/business/worldbusiness/26remit.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/26/busine">Mexican workers will send fewer dollars back home.</A> </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Mexican economy will suffer. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Economic distress will spur political unrest. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Leftist politicians will gain influence in Mexico. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Relations will worsen between the U.S. and Mexico.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Economic distress will spur political unrest. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Mexican government will make home mortgages more available. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Mexico's huge housing deficit will create market for new homes. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Surge in residential construction will create jobs. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Mexican economy will strengthen. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Fewer Mexican workers will seek jobs in U.S.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Economic distress will spur political unrest. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Mexican government will make consumer credit more available. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Easier consumer credit will lead to retail expansion. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >New retail businesses will create jobs. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Mexican economy will strengthen. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Fewer Mexican workers will seek jobs in U.S.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> Fewer workers will seek jobs in the U.S. ><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>><A HREF="http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/"> U.S. will face, within 10 years,  a shortage of workers t</A>o replace retiring boomers, as well as to pay into social security and Medicare programs. ><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> U.S. will compete with Europe for immigrant workers.. -- <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >John Mauldin, <I>Frontline Weekly Newsletter, </I>11Jan08.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Immigration will be exploited in U.S. as a political issue </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Discrimination against Mexicans will increase, raising ethnic tensions in U.S. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Relations will worsen between the U.S. and Mexico.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118610985048187068.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB11861098">Solving the immigration problem will not happen unless Mexico solves its job-creation problem.</A> To do that, Mexico needs to modernize and open up to competition its antiquated and concentrated economic and financial systems. --</FONT> "Mexico's Job Creation Problem" by Joel Kurtzman, <I>Wall Street Journal</I>, 03Aug07.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Hispanic youth in the U.S. will violently protest anti-immigration policies of the nation.</B></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/columnists/andres_oppenheimer/story/295183.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/columnis">Undocumented immigrants, forced into the underground economy in the U.S.,  will become restless and angry.</A> </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Young underclass will be swayed by the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) and other insurgent groups in Mexico.  </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/">Small groups will launch attacks in the U.S., especially in urban areas and along border.</A> </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >U.S. will crack down on rebel groups, raising the level of animosity toward immigrants. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Venezuela and Cuba will lend support to guerrilla factions, further escalating tension. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119500639086792293.html?mod=hps_us_pageone%20%20Gl" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB11950063"> </A><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119500639086792293.html?mod=hps_us_pageone%20%20Gl" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB11950063">Insurgency in Mexico will spread, perhaps in league with drug lords</A>. </FONT>><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >consequently</FONT>> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Insurgencies will be joined in the two countries and gain widespread sympathy in Latin America. </FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>Commentators and political analysts foresee two different trajectories for the immigration issue. </B></div> <bR> <div> Many believe that support for stern anti-immigration measures is strong enough that liberalizing legislation is dead until at least 2009.</div> <div> The contrasting view was expressed by President Bush following the demise  of his Administration's proposal for immigration reform. </div> <bR> <div> <I>I can make a prediction ...  that pretty shortly people are going to be knocking on people's doors saying “Man,  we're running out of workers".</I></div> <bR> <div> But public attitudes will be more influenced by concerns about the welfare burden of poor immigrants than worries about the labor market,  according to <A HREF="http://www.bepress.com/bejeap/vol7/iss1/art62/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.bepress.com/bejeap/vol7/iss1/">recent research</A>. A majority of Floridians (51%) feel illegal immigration is a very serious problem in the state, and more than half (54%) support tougher measures to stem the flow of  undocumented workers. <A HREF="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.asp?id=pub_survey07_immigration" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.a">(</A><A HREF="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.asp?id=pub_survey07_immigration" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.a">2007 Sunshine </A><A HREF="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.asp?id=pub_survey07_immigration" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.a">State Survey by Leadership Florida</A><A HREF="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.asp?id=pub_survey07_immigration" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.a">)</A></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118775006576904951.html?mod=hps_us_at_glance_opinion" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB11877500">Whether the end result is a restrictive labor market or one that is loosely regulated will depend on whether business interests can influence the course of events.</A></div> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="02de9c60.jpg" border=0 width="1001" height="454" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <div> <B>Another cost of strict immigration control -- some business owners will loosen their traditional ties to the Republican Party.</B></div> <bR> <div> The immigration issue (<A HREF="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/01/AR2008010102333.html?hpid=topnews" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con">more polarizing, than abortion, according to pollster Peter Hart</A>) fuses fear of terrorism with whites' anxiety about the growing Hispanic population.  To placate the nativist wing of the Republican Party, <A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119267138726362940.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB11926713">the Bush Administration will press ahead with efforts to track down illegal workers and punish their employers.</A>  <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >-- "For Republicans, contest's hallmark is immigration", <I>Washington Post</I>, 02Jan08</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://www.slate.com/id/2172205/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.slate.com/id/2172205/">Some observers cynically suspect that well-publicized incidents of overzealous enforcement are calculated to rouse business leaders to more actively support Bush's amnesty and guest worker age</A>nda. </div> <bR> <div> Others  believe that the harsh stance on immigration by Republican candidates, especially Romney and Giuliani, is simply positioning for the primaries. But employers worry that their rhetoric may box the politicians into extreme positions that cannot later be moderated. <A HREF="http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/dec2007/db20071214_881757.htm?link_position=link15" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnfl">Many Republican business owners who fear the consequences of the immigration crackdown are switching party affiliations.</A>  (Only 37% of professionals and managers identify themselves as Republican or leaning Republican, down from 44% three years ago, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in September 2007.)  - <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >“When anti-immigration is anti-business,” Business Week, 17Dec07</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>Businesses will adapt to the loss of immigrant workers -- by finding substitutes, by relocating operations, or by getting out of business altogether. </B></div> <bR> <div> Advocates of tighter immigration controls doubt that long-term damage will be done to industries that now depend on low-cost labor from outside the country. Businesses will adapt once denied cheap and easy options. </div> <bR> <div> For example, <A HREF="http://www.miamiherald.com/business/story/345376.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.miamiherald.com/business/stor">Miami hotels and restaurants are beginning to offer employment to the homeless</A>, especially those without drug problems or felony convictions. <FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" >-- "Hotels turn to homeless for help", <I>Miami Herald</I>, 17Dec07</FONT></div> <bR> <div> Some believe that while immigration is a political issue, it will be solved by making it a management problem: <I>If people want affordable food on the table, </I><A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/weekinreview/06johnson.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/weekin"><I>the economic system will get the lettuce and strawberries picked with low labor costs</I></A><I> even as the squabbling over illegal immigration goes on. </I><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><I>- </I>Kirk Johnson, <I>New York Times</I>, 06Jan08.</FONT></div> <div> One <A HREF="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ODM4MDhkYTBmMzJlZjVjZTJmNzRmNDQ2Y2UxYjMwMzE=" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ODM">blogger </A>recalls that in the early 1960s, the existing guest worker program was up for renewal, and California growers warned Congress that the “the use of braceros [Mexican farm laborers] is absolutely essential to the survival of the tomato industry.” When Congress terminated it anyway, the growers discovered that mechanized harvesting brought in five times more tomatoes, with 89 percent fewer workers, lowering the super market price significantly. </div> <bR> <div> If the supply of immigrant workers is significantly curtailed, some companies may find ways to continue doing what they do without cheap labor.  But others may shift investment to new ventures or new locations less vulnerable to the vagaries of immigration politics.  With either outcome, the economy of Florida will be unsettled as its key industries struggle to adjust.</div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.asp?id=pub_survey07_immigration" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.leadershipflorida.org/mx/hm.a"><B>A majority of Floridians support tougher measures against illegal immigrants</B></A><B>. If this attitude translates into tougher state laws aimed at employers, the outcome may parallel what some expect to happen in Arizona in 2008.</B></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119882121857255395.html?mod=9_0031_b_this_weeks_magazine_main" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1198">Barron's predicts that -- </A></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#333333" FACE="Arial" ><I>threatening business with extinction for hiring people hungry for work ... will overwhelm or corrupt the officers who are supposed to enforce it.  It will disrupt Arizona business, reduce the profits of its most lucrative industries, raise unemployment and lower economic output.  It will enrich New Mexico and Nevada and the state of Sonora in Mexico, site of Arizona outsourcing at Arizona's expense. ... [It will be] the most self-defeating legislative enterprise since the Volstead Act, which enforced national Prohibition.</I> </FONT>-- "Hiring freeze: Arizona tries to curb illegal workers by strangling its own economy", <I>Barron's,</I> 31Dec07.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Large scale deportation will be ruinous to the economy -- and produce  a gigantic paperjam within the U.S. government.</B></div> <bR> <div> <I>The call to deport 12,000,000 illegal immigrants is simply economic suicide. It would create a depression (not just a minor recession) in short order. Let's reduce productivity by 10-15%. Let's reduce consumer spending by 7-8%. Shut down hundreds of thousands of businesses who could not get workers they  need. Who will pick the crops? Or do any of a hundred jobs that Americans don't want to do? It would drive up labor costs and create inflation. It would be a disaster of Biblical proportions</I><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><I>. </I></FONT>T<I>he reality is that we need those workers who are here. The economy simply will not function without them. You can't send them home and then tell them to apply and hope they can get back in, and then expect business to function as usual. It will take years for a bureaucracy to handle the paperwork. </I><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" > - John Mauldin, </FONT><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://www.frontlinethoughts.com" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.frontlinethoughts.com"><U>www.frontlinethoughts.com</U></A></FONT><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >, 11Jan08.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>But anti-immigrant fervor may be waning.</B></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Florida's Republican Party primary proved that the state was not the cauldron of anti-illegal immigrant sentiment that some candidates may have thought. About 58 percent of Republican voters told exit pollsters that illegal immigrants should either be offered a chance to apply for citizenship or allowed to stay as temporary workers -- positions roughly in line with McCain's. And those voters went for McCain by substantial margins. Forty percent said illegal immigrants should be deported, and that minority went for Romney</FONT>. - <A HREF="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012903011.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008012904297" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con">“New generation casts votes on immigration, economic issues,” </A><A HREF="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012903011.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008012904297" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con"><I>Washington</I></A><A HREF="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012903011.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008012904297" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con"> </A><A HREF="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012903011.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008012904297" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con"><I>Post</I></A><A HREF="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/29/AR2008012903011.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008012904297" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con">, 30Jan08.</A></div> <bR> <div> <I>"Most immigrants realize that the immigration debate is not about immigration. It's about xenophobia at best and racism at worst." </I>- Cuban American voter, quoted in <I>Washington Post</I>, 30Jan08.</div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <div> Updated 30Jan08</div> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>